Official Contest Rules

1. Sponsor

These Official Contest Rules (“Rules”) govern all forecasting contests (“Contests”) administered through the MacroSeer platform. Each Contest is sponsored by the campaign creator (“Sponsor”) who funded that Contest. The platform is administered by MacroSeer, Inc. (“Administrator”), 5351 Main Street, Waitsfield, Vermont 05673.

2. Nature of Contest

MacroSeer Contests are contests of skill. Winners are determined exclusively by the accuracy of their numeric forecasts relative to officially published resolution values. Chance plays no role in determining winners. No purchase is necessary to participate where a free participation option is made available.

3. Eligibility

Participation is open to legal residents of the United States and other jurisdictions where skill-based forecasting contests are permitted by law, who are at least 18 years of age at the time of entry.

The following are not eligible to participate in any Contest:

• Employees, officers, directors, and agents of MacroSeer, Inc. and their immediate family members (spouse, parent, sibling, child) or household members
• The Sponsor of a specific Contest and their employees, officers, and agents, with respect to that Sponsor’s Contest only
• Any person located in a jurisdiction where participation is prohibited by law

MacroSeer reserves the right to verify eligibility and disqualify any participant who does not meet these requirements.

4. Contest Period

Each Contest has a defined open period, lock date, and resolution date, which are disclosed at campaign creation and visible to all participants on the campaign page. Forecasts submitted after the lock date will not be accepted. Resolution dates are determined by the official publication schedule of the designated resolution source.

5. How to Enter

To participate in a Contest:

1. Create a MacroSeer account at www.macroseer.com
2. Navigate to the active Campaign you wish to enter
3. Submit your numeric forecast for the primary question before the campaign lock date
4. Optionally respond to follow-up questions if and when they are sent

No fee is charged to participants. Only Sponsors pay campaign fees.

Limit: one (1) forecast submission per participant per question per Campaign. Duplicate accounts or submissions may result in disqualification.

6. Forecasting Questions

Each Contest contains one primary question requiring a numeric forecast. The question specifies:

• The exact economic, financial, or market metric being forecasted
• The official source from which the resolution value will be taken
• The specific data release date and time
• The unit of measurement (e.g., thousands of jobs, index value, percentage)

Sponsors may include follow-up questions sent to all participants at a designated midpoint date. Follow-up questions are additional forecasting challenges designed to further measure participant accuracy and analytical process. Participation in follow-up questions is encouraged but does not affect eligibility for the primary prize unless otherwise stated in the specific Campaign.

7. Scoring and Judging

Contests are judged on the basis of forecasting accuracy. The scoring methodology used by MacroSeer evaluates participant forecasts across up to five dimensions, which may include:

• Proximity — how close the forecast is to the resolution value
• Directional accuracy — whether the forecast correctly predicted the direction of change
• Confidence calibration — alignment between stated confidence and actual accuracy
• Revision behavior — whether participants meaningfully updated forecasts in response to new information
• Consistency — accuracy across multiple questions within a campaign

The specific weighting of scoring dimensions for each Contest is determined by MacroSeer’s proprietary scoring engine. MacroSeer’s scoring determinations are final and binding.

8. Resolution

Resolution values are taken from the official publication designated in each Campaign (examples include the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), U.S. Energy Information Administration data releases, Zillow Research data, and CME Group settlement prices).

Where a designated source fails to publish on the scheduled date, MacroSeer will use the next official publication from that source. If a resolution source permanently ceases publication, MacroSeer will designate a substantially equivalent replacement source and notify participants.

For campaigns with resolution source designated as “manual,” the resolution value is entered by the MacroSeer Administrator based on the criteria specified in the Campaign.

9. Tiebreaking

In the event that two or more participants achieve identical scores following primary scoring, ties are resolved using the following waterfall, applied in order:

1. Score on follow-up question(s), if applicable
2. Confidence calibration score
3. Revision signal score (whether participant updated forecast after follow-up)
4. Earliest valid submission timestamp

If a tie cannot be broken by any of the above, the prize may be split equally among tied winners at MacroSeer’s discretion.

10. Prizes

Prize amounts and structures (winner-take-all or split) are set by the Sponsor and disclosed at campaign creation. MacroSeer does not guarantee any minimum prize amount.

Prizes are paid via Stripe Connect electronic transfer to the winner’s verified payment account. Winners will be notified by email following resolution and scoring. Winners must claim their prize within 90 days of notification by providing required payment and tax information. Unclaimed prizes revert to the Sponsor or, where applicable, to MacroSeer at the end of the claim period.

MacroSeer is not responsible for prizes that cannot be delivered due to incorrect contact information provided by the winner.

11. Tax Obligations

Winners are solely responsible for all federal, state, and local taxes on prize winnings. MacroSeer and the Sponsor make no representations regarding the tax treatment of prizes. For prizes valued at $600 or more in a calendar year, MacroSeer will issue an IRS Form 1099-MISC or equivalent. Winners may be required to provide a completed IRS Form W-9 prior to prize disbursement.

12. Disqualification

MacroSeer reserves the right to disqualify any participant who:

• Provides false or misleading information at registration or during participation
• Submits forecasts using automated tools, bots, or AI systems without disclosure
• Colludes or coordinates with other participants
• Violates the MacroSeer Terms of Service or these Rules
• Engages in any conduct that MacroSeer determines to be contrary to the integrity of the Contest

Disqualification may result in forfeiture of any prizes.

13. Intellectual Property

By submitting a forecast, participants grant MacroSeer a perpetual, royalty-free, non-exclusive license to use, aggregate, and publish their forecast data (in anonymized or attributed form) for purposes including but not limited to: consensus signal generation, intelligence products, research, and platform improvement.

Participants retain no ownership interest in aggregated MacroSeer intelligence products derived from contest data.

14. Publicity

Except where prohibited by law, participation in a Contest constitutes consent to MacroSeer’s use of the winner’s name, username, general location, and forecast accuracy for promotional purposes, without additional compensation.

15. Limitation of Liability

TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, MACROSEER AND EACH SPONSOR ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR: (A) LATE, LOST, MISDIRECTED, INCOMPLETE, OR ILLEGIBLE ENTRIES; (B) TECHNICAL FAILURES OF ANY KIND; (C) UNAUTHORIZED INTERVENTION; OR (D) ANY INJURY OR DAMAGE TO PARTICIPANTS OR ANY OTHER PERSON ARISING FROM PARTICIPATION IN A CONTEST.

16. General Conditions

MacroSeer reserves the right to cancel, modify, or suspend any Contest in the event of fraud, technical failure, or any other cause beyond MacroSeer’s reasonable control that compromises the integrity of the Contest. In such cases, MacroSeer will determine the fairest method of resolution or award in its sole discretion.

These Rules are governed by the laws of the State of Delaware. Any dispute arising from a Contest shall be resolved in accordance with the dispute resolution provisions in the MacroSeer Terms of Service.

17. Winner List

To request a list of prize winners for any completed Contest, send a written request within 180 days of the Contest resolution date to:

MacroSeer, Inc.
5351 Main Street
Waitsfield, Vermont 05673
legal@macroseer.com